Cyclically-Adjusted Measures of Structural Trend Breaks: An Application to Productivity Trends in the 1990s

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper 96-14

Posted: 5 Jan 1998

See all articles by Andrew J. Filardo

Andrew J. Filardo

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Monetary and Economic Department

Paul N. Cooper

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: December 1996

Abstract

This paper compares several linear trend break models of labor productivity. One empirical problem that arises when estimating trends in macroeconomic data is the influence of cyclical behavior on tests of trend breaks. Using various methods to correct for cyclical influences, this paper finds that a simple linear trend model with a small number of breaks aptly characterizes aggregate productivity. Moreover, this paper confirms previous research that has found that the aggregate productivity trend has not steepened in the 1990s. Econometrically, this paper shows the benefits of using nonparametric bootstrap methods. In particular, a phase- dependent moving block bootstrap method appears well suited to generate small sample critical values to test for trend breaks in macroeconomic time-series.

JEL Classification: C14

Suggested Citation

Filardo, Andrew J. and Cooper, Paul N., Cyclically-Adjusted Measures of Structural Trend Breaks: An Application to Productivity Trends in the 1990s (December 1996). Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper 96-14. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=50603

Andrew J. Filardo (Contact Author)

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Monetary and Economic Department ( email )

Centralbahnplatz 2
CH-4002 Basel
Switzerland

Paul N. Cooper

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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