Thinking against the Wind: Narratives and Reasoning Ability

Abstract

How individuals respond differently to authoritative narratives? Using a two-wave survey experiment conducted at pivotal moments in a pandemic, we find that individuals with high reasoning ability demonstrate a consistent tendency to "think against the wind," challenging prevailing narratives regardless of their direction. During the "Zero-COVID" period, these individuals perceived lower virus risks and opposed containment policies, but after the narrative shifted to minimizing virus severity, they showed greater concern about virus risks. These findings underscore the pivotal role of reasoning ability in shaping public opinion and policy support, with implications that extend beyond pandemics to other contentious public issues.

Keywords: Reasoning ability, Narratives, Belief polarization, Covid-19 D91, D83, I18, C83