Sociotechnical Pathways: From Satellites and Stations to Envisioning Commercial Lunar Gateways and Beyond

Abstract

This paper explores the evolution of outer space activities, focusing on the transition from government-orchestrated missions to burgeoning commercial development initiatives. It situates the emergence of commercial lunar gateways (CLGs) within the broader, multigenerational human effort to establish a sustained presence in outer space. Using an enhanced multi-level perspective framework, the study examines the sociotechnical systems shaping this evolution, with particular attention to the interplay between technological advancements, regulatory frameworks, and social interests across various levels of the space sector. The research identifies three distinct periods in the commercial space pathway: Space 1.0 Spaceflight Foundations, Space 2.0 Orbital Endurance, and Space 3.0 Interplanetary Ambitions. Each period is analyzed through its dominant transition pathways, trajectories, and public-private mechanisms for organizing collective action. The analysis delves into how landscape pressures, organizing models, regime structures, and niche innovations have interacted over time, defining the current trajectory of space commercialization. The findings underscore the increasing complexity and scale of space activities, formed by shifts in organizing methods, technological breakthroughs, and greater integration of diverse public and private stakeholders. From this analysis, three potential future scenarios for CLGs emerge, each defined by distinct trajectories, transition pathways, and organizing models. These scenarios provide valuable insights into the opportunities and challenges influencing the establishment of lunar gateways, contributing to a deeper understanding of space commercialization and its implications for theory development, policymaking, and practice.

Keywords: Sociotechnical Transitions, Space Commercialization, Multi-Level Perspective (MLP), Public-Private Partnerships (PPP), Lunar Settlements, Interplanetary Economy