Reaching Potential Users: The Effects of a Rapid Transit Expansion on Travel Behavior

Abstract

This study investigates how expanding transit catchment areas through new stations openings affects transit ridership and bilateral trip flows. Using the expansion of the rapid transit network in the São Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR) over a 10-year period, we combine household travel survey data with spatially detailed information in econometric models to estimate changes in travel behavior and conditions. Our findings reveal that increases in the population within rail station catchment areas positively influence rail ridership and trip flows, whereas expanding BRT station catchment areas has no effect on ridership or trip flows by bus. These heterogeneous results align with our finding that the travel time gap between car and transit modes has become more favorable for rail but not for buses during this period. The results highlight that expanding rapid transit systems affects travel behavior most effectively when coupled with improved transit speeds, better station access, and enhanced accessibility to opportunities via public transit.

Keywords: station catchment area, accessibility, travel behavior, transit ridership, spatial interaction model, São Paulo Metropolitan Region