Anchoring Bias in the NFL Gambling Market

10 Pages Posted: 20 Jan 2025

See all articles by Fernando Patterson

Fernando Patterson

North Carolina Central University (NCCU)

Corey A. Shank

Miami University

Andy Fodor

Ohio University

Abstract

We explore the impact of the anchoring bias in the NFL betting market to overcome limitations within financial literature regarding investor behavior. Consistent with an anchoring bias, we find bettors prefer to bet on teams with better pre-season Super Bowl odds throughout the entire season. We further document that this strategy has a significant inverse relationship to profitability in week 1 of the NFL season.  Furthermore, we show sportsbooks continue to incorporate pre-season odds into their closing lines throughout the entire season, suggesting they may anchor to pre-season odds as well. These results have important implications for financial markets.

Keywords: Anchoring Bias, Behavioral Bias, NFL, Gambling

Suggested Citation

Patterson, Fernando and Shank, Corey and Fodor, Andy, Anchoring Bias in the NFL Gambling Market. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5104118 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5104118

Fernando Patterson

North Carolina Central University (NCCU) ( email )

Durham, NC 27707
United States

Corey Shank

Miami University ( email )

Oxford, OH 45056
United States

HOME PAGE: http://coreyshank.com

Andy Fodor (Contact Author)

Ohio University ( email )

514 Copeland Hall
Athens, OH 45701
United States
740.593.0259 (Phone)

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