Preprints with The Lancet is a collaboration between The Lancet Group of journals and SSRN to facilitate the open sharing of preprints for early engagement, community comment, and collaboration. Preprints available here are not Lancet publications or necessarily under review with a Lancet journal. These preprints are early-stage research papers that have not been peer-reviewed. The usual SSRN checks and a Lancet-specific check for appropriateness and transparency have been applied. The findings should not be used for clinical or public health decision-making or presented without highlighting these facts. For more information, please see the FAQs.
Machine Learning Prediction Algorithms for 2-, 5- and 10-Year Risk of Alzheimer’S, Parkinson's and Dementia at Age 65: A Study Using Medical Records from France and the UK General Practitioners
Background: Leveraging machine learning on electronic health records offers a promising method for early identification of individuals at risk for dementia and neurodegenerative diseases. Current risk algorithms heavily rely on age, highlighting the need for alternative models with strong predictive power, especially at age 65, a crucial time for early screening and prevention.
Methods: This prospective study analyzed electronic health records (EHR) from 76,427 adults (age 65, 52.1% women) using the THIN database. A general risk algorithm for Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, and dementia was developed using machine learning to select predictors from diagnoses, and medications.
Results: Medications (e.g., laxatives, urological drugs, antidepressants), along with sex, BMI, and comorbidities, were key predictors. The algorithm achieved a 38.4% detection rate at a 5% false-positive rate for 2-year dementia prediction.
Conclusion: The validated prediction algorithms, easy to implement in primary care, identify high-risk 65-year-olds using medication records. Further refinement and broader validation are needed.
Keywords: neurodegenerative diseases, prevention, general practitioners
Nedelec, Thomas and Zaidi, Karim and Montaud, Charlotte and Guinebretiere, Octave and Sipilä, Pyry and Wei, Dang and Yang, Fen and Freydenzon, Anna and Belloir, Antoine and Fournier, Nemo and Hamieh, Nadine and Beranger, Lekens and Slaouti, Yannis and McRae, Allan F. and Couvy-Duchesne, Baptiste and Hswen, Yulin and Fang, Fang and Kivimäki, Mika and Ansart, Manon and Durrleman, Stanley, Machine Learning Prediction Algorithms for 2-, 5- and 10-Year Risk of Alzheimer’S, Parkinson's and Dementia at Age 65: A Study Using Medical Records from France and the UK General Practitioners. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5108444 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5108444
Download This Paper