The Paradox between Vaccination Rate and COVID-19 Mortality: Numerous Socioeconomic and Environmental Elements that Promote Spread

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of vaccination as the primary strategy to reduce COVID-19 deaths in over 150 countries. By analyzing the correlation between full vaccination rates and mortality rates in January 2022, the study initially finds a positive association (r = 0.65, p-value < .01). However, further regression analysis reveals a more complex relationship. A 1% increase in full vaccination is unexpectedly linked to a 0.7% rise in expected deaths per 100,000 people (p-value < .001), even when considering GDP differences. This suggests that factors beyond vaccination, such as socioeconomic conditions, virus mutations, and healthcare resources (e.g., ventilators per capita), play a substantial role in determining mortality rates. The study's findings challenge the notion that vaccination alone can eradicate COVID-19. While vaccination is a crucial tool, it's essential to address the broader factors contributing to the virus's spread and its economic impact, particularly in countries with high vaccination rates but persistent mortality. This comprehensive approach is vital for effectively managing the pandemic and minimizing its long-term consequences.

Keywords: COVID-19, Vaccination, Mortality, Correlation, Socioeconomic factors, Public health, Pandemic crisis

JEL Classification: I10, I18, H51, H12