Climate Change and Social Turmoil in the Late Qing Dynasty Revealed by Tree Rings

Abstract

The Qing Dynasty, as the final epoch of China's feudal era, possesses not only profound historical significance but also serves as a crucial lens through which to examine the influence of climate change on the rise and fall of dynasties. This study utilizes the tree-ring width chronology of Pinus bungeana Zucc from the Shennong Mountain (SNM) in Henan Province to reconstruct the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for the Central China over the past 345 years (1674-2018), thereby exploring the impact of climate change on the decline of Qing Dynasty. The results reveal a strong spatial correlation between the reconstructed SPEIA and the pivotal regions to the White Lotus Uprising (WLU), as well as a notable alignment with regional drought patterns. Further analysis identified four significant cycles with the wet and dry fluctuations of the Central China, with periods of 2-8a, 37-38a, 71-74a, and 159-173a. The reconstructed SPEIA also exhibits significant positive correlations with the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Pacific, indicating a close connection between the hydroclimatic variations in the Central China and SSTs of the North Pacific. Of particular interest is the severe drought that occurred from 1780 to 1820, which coincided with the timing of the WLU (1796-1804) and marked the decline of the Qing Dynasty. This drought is primarily attributed to changes in the SSTs and position of the North Pacific Subtropical High, underscoring the substantial impact of this climatic feature on regional precipitation. Our reconstruction offers a novel perspective for assessing the impact of climate change on historical socio-economic conditions, and enhances our understanding of the interplay between climate change and the rise and fall of Chinese dynasties.

Keywords: The Central China, Tree rings, SPEI Reconstructed, Dynasty Decline, White Lotus Uprising