Uncharted Territory? U.S.-China Power Dynamics in Trump's Second Presidency

Abstract

The principle that past performance serves as a reliable predictor of future actions holds merit but falls short when applied to the inherently unpredictable leadership style of Donald J. Trump. Furthermore, compelling evidence suggests the emergence of a reconfigured U.S. foreign policy landscape, driven by advancements in technology that herald the onset of a fourth industrial revolution. Although Trump's rhetoric has largely echoed that of his first administration, the features of this second administration-fortified by loyalists, enhanced by a substantial electoral victory in both the presidency and the Senate, and informed by the experience of his first termprovides a foundation to anticipate some changes. At the very least, it will likely intensify efforts toward "economic decoupling," selectively disengaging from Chinese supply chains in critical sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals to protect U.S. interests. Moreover, Trump's focus on "America First" could strain multilateral structures, further challenging the role of international institutions and diminishing prospects for cooperative solutions. Human rights issues would remain points of leverage, supporting U.S. efforts to weaken China's international image while securing alliances with democratic partners.