A Markup Model of Inflation for the Euro Area

Abstract

In the paper we propose a new methodological approach to core inflation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is the scaled common persistent factor in inflation and excess nominal money growth and bears the interpretation of monetary inflation. The proposed measure is characterised by all the properties that an "ideal" core inflation process should show, providing also a superior forecasting performance relative to other available measures.

Keywords: Inflation, price-cost markup, cointegration, time-varying intercept, dynamic modelling

JEL Classification: C22, C32, E31