Agriculture, Trade, Migration, and Climate Change *

Abstract

Climate change affects agricultural production through land productivity and multicropping capacities. Given agriculture’s substantial contribution to both income and employment in developing economies, evolving agro-climatic conditions can reshape labor reallocation and agricultural production. I develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model incorporating farmers’ optimal crop choices, international trade, and forward-looking migration. Under RCP 8.5, global welfare effects on agricultural workers are modest but vary significantly across countries. Results highlight that the general equilibrium effects of labor mobility are nontrivial, and domestic structural transformation can play a crucial role in mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change. 

Keywords: agricultural production, climate change, migration, structural transformation JEL-Codes: F16, Q17, Q54, F16

JEL Classification: Q56, Q17, F16, Q54