Gone with the Wind? Impacts of Hurricanes on College Enrollment and Completion

Abstract

Hurricanes have significant and growing economic impacts. While the physical destruction is immediately visible, the disruptions to education and their long-term effects on human capital are often less apparent. This study examines the impact of hurricanes on U.S. higher education enrollment and completion using data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System and a Differences-inDifferences Event Study approach. We find that two-year colleges experience an approximately 10% decline in both enrollment and the number of degrees and certifications awarded within a decade following a hurricane, whereas four-year institutions exhibit no significant effects. The impact is more pronounced in institutions exposed to higher hurricane intensity and frequency, public two-year colleges, and those with a greater reliance on local student populations and higher admission rates. These effects appear to be driven by shifts in migration patterns, declines in high school graduates, and local labor market disruptions. Our findings suggest that targeted government disaster aid for community colleges could be more effective.

Keywords: Hurricane, Natural Disaster, Human Capital, College Enrollment, College Completion JEL: Q54, I24, J24