Assessing Climate Transition Risk in the GCC Region: Challenges and Modeling Techniques for Sustainable Policy Development

Abstract

This research paper digs into how climate risks that come with transition hit economic stability and shape sustainable policy in the Gulf Cooperation Council region. It starts by pointing out that the current methods for modeling these risks just aren’t cutting it and then gets into a detailed look at greenhouse gas numbers, economic trends, existing rules, and climate impact reviews gathered from across the GCC. In many cases, this blend of data and viewpoints unexpectedly reveals weaknesses lurking in the region’s economic setup, which could make it hard to cope with rapid climate changes. Generally speaking, these shortcomings in modeling intensify the region’s exposure to climate risks, hinting that bolstering data sharing and tweaking how we analyze things is really needed to back sound policy decisions. The study doesn’t stop there—its findings ripple into healthcare too, because climate-driven economic shifts might eventually overload public health systems, making it trickier to ensure good health outcomes and manage resources. In most cases, the research nudges us toward breaking out of traditional silos by mixing environmental science, economics, and healthcare policy to build stronger resilience against climate shocks. By weaving together how climate variables and economic factors interact, this work paints a picture of how smarter, proactive policy can lift the region’s ability to adapt, setting the stage for not only sustainable growth but ultimately a healthier population in the GCC.

Keywords: climate risk, risk management, modeling techniques, transition risk