Global, Regional, and National Burden of Tuberculosis Due to Metabolic Factors, 1990-2021: Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which can cause TB of the lungs and can also invade other organs, posing a serious threat to human health, and is particularly harmful to women of childbearing age. Recent studies have shown that metabolism-related factors can affect the occurrence and development of TB in a variety of ways.

Methods: To better understand the incidence of associated TB, multiple approaches were taken. First, the burden indicator profile of TB due to metabolic factors (Death, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs)) was analyzed for the period 1990-2021 in women of reproductive age. Then, a detailed analysis of the burden of disease in 2021 was performed with specific analyses based on different ages, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, Global Burden of Disease (GDB) regions and countries. Subsequently, decomposition analyses were performed to understand the main factors influencing changes in burden. Finally, ARIMA, ES and BAPC models were applied to project trends in the associated TB burden for 2022 - 2050.

Findings: Globally, the number of cases of TB is increasing and the ASR is decreasing during 1990-2021 due to metabolic-related factors. Disease burden increases with age and decreases with SDI. Disease burden GBD varies significantly between regions and countries, with a higher burden mainly in regions with low levels of economic development, as evidenced by the highest burden in India. The projections suggest that the number of disease burdens may increase or remain almost constant from 2022 to 2050, and that there is still a need to continuously monitor changes in burden and implement effective measures.

Interpretation: Since TB can be extremely hazardous to human health, this study focused on TB caused by metabolic factors. To effectively prevent TB, a combination of prevention and treatment is needed. Raising public awareness of the widespread nature of TB transmission, as well as regular public health programs at the national societal level to target prevention and control of TB development are needed to reduce the disease burden of metabolic factor-associated TB.

Keywords: Tuberculosis, metabolic factors, GBD 2021