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Global Burden, Epidemiological Trends, and Underlying Causes of Heart Failure from 1990–2021 with Projections to 2046: A Population‐Based Study
Background: Heart failure (HF) is a major public health issue worldwide, with significant disparities in its burden across different regions and populations. This study aims to analyze the global burden, epidemiological trends, and etiological factors contributing to HF from 1990 to 2021, with projections for future trends up to 2046, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study.
Methods: Data on age-standardized prevalence rates, years lived with disability (YLDs), and cause-specific mortality related to HF were obtained from the GBD 2021 database. The analysis covered various regions, age groups, and sexes from 1990 to 2021. Model-based projections for 2046 were also made based on current trends, including regional variations in the underlying causes of HF, such as ischemic heart disease, hypertensive heart disease, rheumatic heart disease, and congenital heart anomalies.
Findings: The global age-standardized prevalence of HF increased significantly from 641.1 to 760.8 per 100,000 population between 1990 and 2021. The increase was more pronounced in high-income regions, driven by an aging population and increased prevalence of ischemic heart disease and hypertension. Conversely, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) experienced higher mortality rates, largely due to infectious diseases like rheumatic heart disease and Chagas disease. The elderly population, particularly those aged 80 and above, saw the most significant rise in HF prevalence. Projections suggest a nearly threefold increase in HF prevalence among the elderly by 2046, especially in women and high-income regions.
Interpretation: The global burden of heart failure is rising, with significant regional, age, and sex disparities. High-income regions face increasing prevalence due to aging populations and improved survival rates, while LMICs remain heavily burdened by infectious causes. Addressing the rising burden of HF requires targeted strategies, including improving healthcare access, managing cardiovascular risk factors, and focusing on early detection and prevention, particularly in regions with limited resources.
Xi, Yangbo and Chen, Zhenfan and He, Jinzheng and Zhang, Zenghui and Han, Yuchen and Guo, Chuxian and Guo, Jun, Global Burden, Epidemiological Trends, and Underlying Causes of Heart Failure from 1990–2021 with Projections to 2046: A Population‐Based Study. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5194361 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5194361
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