Seasonal (Monthly) Cycles Of Bitcoin Profitability And Geomagnitic Index Ap: Proving High Strength Of Correlation (2013 -2025)

Abstract

The report uses a methodological approach based on W. S. Jevons and A. L. Chizhevsky. For the period 2013-2025, the arithmetic average values of the geomagnetic index Ap were determined for each month and compared with the monthly profitability of Bitcoin as a percentage. Calculations were carried out for 146 months. The correlation coefficient of the geomagnetic index Ap and the average monthly Bitcoin profitability is 0.811 for 12-06 months,-0.999 for 07-09 months and-0.999 for 09-11 months of the year. The results obtained allow us to predict a decrease in bitcoin profitability in April-June 2025.

Keywords: Bitcoin, geomagnetic index Ap, seasonal economic cycles, monetary policy