Tier-1 Exposure at Cushing: A Multi-Domain Threat Architecture for Strategic Energy Disruption and Economic Market Destabilization

Abstract

The Cushing Oil Storage and Distribution Complex in Oklahoma is the most strategically exposed liquid fuel infrastructure node in the United States. As the official settlement and delivery point for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), Cushing facilitates the daily movement of over 6 million barrels of crude oil and connects more than 20 major pipelines serving PADD 2 and PADD 3 refineries, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), and key Gulf Coast export terminals. Its physical throughput role, combined with its financial function in global oil pricing, makes Cushing a critical asset for national energy continuity and global commodity market stability.

This whitepaper presents a multi-domain threat architecture modeling how a low-signature, non-attributable disruption could trigger cascading national and international consequences. The modeled exploitation sequence involves physical substation disablement, pipeline manifold sabotage, multi-tank ignition, SCADA relay spoofing, and NYMEX delivery disruption. These attack pathways are drawn from confirmed vulnerabilities, including unrestricted FAA Class G airspace, outdated SCADA protocols (Modbus, DNP3), legacy tank infrastructure, decentralized operator credentialing, and insufficient perimeter hardening across shared access corridors.

The resulting consequences include force majeure declarations at NYMEX, a WTI price shock of $5–10 per barrel, SPR flow interruption, PJM grid redistribution, refinery input delays, and emergency fuel waiver activation in FEMA Region VI. Simultaneously, EPA Region VI would likely initiate air and water quality alerts in response to a multi-tank ignition scenario, triggering further economic and public confidence disruption.

This report introduces the Economic Bomb Framework—a strategic threat modeling construct that demonstrates how non-military, low-cost disruption at a single Tier-1 civilian infrastructure node could result in outsized systemic destabilization. The Cushing case study represents the first fully modeled instance of an economic detonation sequence built exclusively from publicly available documentation, regulatory data, and historical infrastructure precedent.

This assessment supports immediate policy actions including FAA flight restriction designation, DOE Tier-1 asset reclassification, DHS NCIPP elevation, unified cyber-physical monitoring requirements across all operators, and integration into FEMA and DOE fuel emergency simulations.

Keywords: Critical Infrastructure, Tier-1 Asset, Energy Security, Homeland Security, WTI Crude Oil, NYMEX, SCADA Vulnerability, UAS Threat Modeling, FAA Class G Airspace, Economic Detonation, Emergency Petroleum Routing, Cyber-Physical Infrastructure, Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), Commodity Market Disruption, FEMA Region VI, Infrastructure Protection, Drone-Based Disruption, CISA Red Team, DOE CESER, Interagency Threat Doctrine, Economic Bomb Framework

JEL Classification: H56, Q41, L95, D80, F52