Two Futures of AI Regulation under the Trump Administration

Abstract

This article examines potential regulatory pathways for AI in the United States following the Trump administration's 2025 revocation of the Biden-era AI Executive Order. We outline two competing governance scenarios: decentralized state-level regulation (with minimal federal oversight) and centralized federal dominance (through legislative pre-emption). We critically evaluate each model's policy implications, constitutional challenges, and practical trade-offs, particularly regarding innovation and state autonomy. We argue that AI's technological characteristics and context-dependent nature complicate achieving regulatory coherence amid competing federal and state interests. As a result, even under the Trump administration's broader deregulatory agenda, targeted federal intervention may remain necessary.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Federalism, Deregulation, Pre-emption, Trump Administration, AI regulation