Incomplete Tariff Pass-Through at the Firm-level: Evidence from the U.S.-China Trade Dispute

Abstract

Recent studies on the U.S.-China trade dispute suggest that the increases in U.S. import tariffs were completely borne by U.S. importers. However, using firm-level data from the U.S. Census, we find that tariff pass-through is incomplete for firms that continue importing the same product from the same country. Large importers experience higher pass-through and account for a greater share of import. Firms that import new products or source from different countries pay higher prices than those maintaining existing relationships. Thus, the observed complete pass-through in prior studies reflects import reallocation toward firms with higher pass-through or more costly new supplier relationships. To explain these patterns, we incorporate a firmspecific import price with two-sided market power into a standard importer model. We show that fixed import costs, an elastic foreign export supply, and the greater bargaining power of large U.S. importers help account for the empirical findings.

Keywords: Trade policy, U.S.-China trade dispute, firm heterogeneity, tariff passthrough JEL classification: F10, F30, F40, F51