Dancing with Macroeconomic Surprises: How Do Business Cycle Shocks Affect Corporate Risk-Taking in China?

Abstract

This paper examines how macroeconomic surprises affect corporate risk-taking in China. Using well-identified business cycle shocks to proxy the unexpected fluctuations of the Chinese aggregate economy, we find that the risk-taking level of publicly listed firms positively correlates with business cycle shocks in general. The underlying mechanism is the evolvement of firms’ financial constraints. However, this finding of full sample analysis is driven mainly by positive business cycle shocks, as the subsample analysis shows that firms also tend to increase risk-taking due to agency problems as adverse business cycle shocks get larger. Moreover, firm-level characteristics, such as managerial shareholdings, growth opportunities, and cash holdings, significantly affect the magnitude of corporate risk-taking’s response to business cycle shocks.

Keywords: Corporate risk-taking, Business cycle shocks, Financial constraints, Agency costs