Operationalizing Just Transition: A Data-Driven Framework for Assessing Household Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Green Transition

Abstract

We develop a framework for operationalizing the concept of a "just transition" that is both evidence-based and informed by principles of justice. The quantitative framework for assessing household vulnerability combines the IPCC’s definition of vulnerability and the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) indices originally designed for poverty measurement. It evaluates vulnerability along three dimensions: incidence, intensity, and inequality. Using administrative microdata from nearly 7 million Dutch households (88% of total), we use this framework to map vulnerability across energy, mobility, and environmental domains at an unprecedented level of detail. To demonstrate the framework's utility, we simulate the allocation of a hypothetical government investment of 1 billion euros under different distributive justice principles. The simulation results underscore the normative implications of policy choices, revealing trade-offs between reducing the absolute number of vulnerable households, mitigating severe vulnerabilities, and addressing inequality among the most vulnerable.

Keywords: Just transition, Vulnerability, Microdata, Households, Quantitative Framework