Future Control Pathways of Pm2.5 Constituents And Emission Sources Under Different Ssps From a Health Perspective

Abstract

PM2.5 constituents may exhibit greater toxicity than the total mass of PM2.5. Estimating the health benefits of PM2.5 constituents under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and extracting the control pathways of emission sources are essential. We projected the avoided premature deaths related to different health endpoints (all-cause disease, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, ischemic heart disease and stroke) attributable to PM2.5 constituents (BC, NH4+, NO3−, OM and SO42−) from 2022 to 2100 in China across different SSPs. The SSP1-2.6 scenario was expected to achieve approximately 380 thousand avoided premature deaths attributable to all PM2.5 constituents and economic benefits of 528.92 billion RMB (0.44% of China's gross domestic product in 2022). The total avoided premature deaths attributable to all-cause disease were expected to be mainly attributable to SO42−, suggesting the priority of controls on residential coal combustion, power, and industrial boilers. The avoided premature deaths showed the highest sensitivity to black carbon (BC) and it is essential to prioritize the controls of residential coal combustion, residential biofuel combustion and off-road mobile source. Each province is advised to take targeted control measures in different seasons.

Note:
Funding declaration: This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42477106) and the Nature Science Foundation of Tianjin (22JCYBJC00150).

Conflict of Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Keywords: Control pathways, PM2.5 constituents, Health impact, SSP scenarios