Comprehensive Cost Modeling and Financial Analysis for Co2 Shipping in the United States: Evaluating Feasibility, Scalability, and Sensitivity

Abstract

Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) is a vital strategy for achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, with CO₂ transportation serving as a critical component of the supply chain. Ship transport offers a flexible and cost-effective alternative to pipelines, particularly for offshore storage sites. However, its cost modeling and financial viability remain underexplored in the United States (U.S.). This study presents a comprehensive CO₂ shipping cost model tailored to U.S. conditions, evaluating capital expenditures (CAPEX), operational expenditures (OPEX), and financial expenditures (FINEX). The results highlight the scaling effects, where CAPEX (~17%) contributes significantly less to the cost per tonne than OPEX (~43%) and FINEX (~40%) for an annual transport volume reaching 1 million tonnes and distance at 1,250 nautical miles. Among key cost components—including liquefaction, buffer storage, loading, shipping, unloading, and gasification—ship-related costs, such as construction, maintenance, fuel, and crew salaries, dominate both CAPEX (40.2%) and OPEX (61.5%). Sensitivity analyses assess the impact of transport distances, annual volumes, and financial structures on overall costs, identifying critical thresholds where costs escalate due to underutilization or fleet expansion. These insights support optimized infrastructure planning and financial strategies. This research addresses key gaps in CO2 ship transport modeling and provides a robust framework for evaluating its economic feasibility, offering guidance for policymakers, investors, and project developers in advancing CCUS initiatives.

Keywords: CCUS, CO₂ shipping, cost modeling, financial instruments