Queens over Kings: Gender and Socioeconomic Predictors of Competitive Chess Performance among Peruvian Youth

Abstract

The aim of this research is to determine whether socioeconomic factors can predict the chess performance of young Peruvian players, measured as the probability of winning a medal (first, second, or third place) in a championship. To achieve this, we explore data from the "National Survey of Youth Chess Players participating in the 2021 Pan Floripa", conducted by the Peruvian Chess Sports Federation (FDPA) after the XXXI Pan American Youth Hybrid Festival 2021 (Pan Floripa 2021). To predict the probability of winning a medal, a binary regression model is estimated using maximum likelihood methodology, assuming a logistic probability distribution. The results indicate that facctors such as gender, previous performance, age, internet access quality, having siblings, and academic performance are significant in predicting a player's likelihood of winning a medal in a chess competition. While the estimated coefficients may not necessarily represent causal effects, the analysis suggests that the probability of a female player winning a medal is higher than that of a male player by at least 26 percentage points. Oaxaca-Blinder and Ñopo decompositions confirm the significant impact of gender on chess performance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first scientific research on the performance of young Peruvian chess players; furthermore, its findings can be valuable for identifying players with a high probability of winning in championships and for designing strategies aimed at enhancing the performance of chess players.

Keywords: Chess performance, socioeconomic factors, logit, youth players, gender differences. JEL Classification : C25

JEL Classification: C25, J13, J16, Z20