Lifecycle Cost Risk Assessment of Pumped Storage Power Plant Projects Based on Matter Element Model

Abstract

Pumped Storage Power Plants (PSPPs), as critical components of energy storage infrastructure, play a vital role in balancing power grid loads and enhancing the overall stability of power systems. Nevertheless, the substantial costs and inherent risks associated with these projects present significant challenges to their development and implementation. This study proposes a cost risk assessment framework for PSPP projects based on the matter-element model, aiming to systematically integrate and quantify the impact of multiple risk factors on project costs. A comprehensive cost risk indicator system comprising 17 indicators across five key lifecycle stages—decision, design, construction, operation, and decommissioning—was developed through an extensive literature review and field investigations. Subsequently, the relative weights of these indicators were determined using rough set theory, based on historical cost data from comparable projects. The proposed matter-element evaluation model was then applied and validated through a real-world case study. Finally, key cost risks were identified, and targeted mitigation strategies were proposed. The framework offers a structured approach for cost risk classification and provides valuable support for cost control and risk management in future PSPP projects.

Keywords: Pumped Storage Power Plant, Cost Risk Control, Matter-Element Model, Rough Set Theory