Download This PaperAre Revisions to State-Level GDP Data in the Us Well Behaved?
19 Pages Posted: 22 Apr 2025
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Are Revisions to State-Level GDP Data in the US Well Behaved?
FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 25-11, https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202511
Number of pages: 20
Posted: 22 Apr 2025
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Abstract
No, first estimates of state GDP growth are not rational forecasts, except for Georgia. Revisions to first estimates of state-level GDP growth tend to be biased, large, and/or predictable using information known at the time of the first estimate.
Keywords: Data revisions, Real-time data, State GDP, Forecast efficiency
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Mitchell, James and Shiroff, Taylor, Are Revisions to State-Level GDP Data in the Us Well Behaved?. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5225354 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5225354
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