Energy Mix Projections and Co2 Emission Factors for a Sustainable European Union: A Country-Level Assessment for 2030 and 2050

Abstract

The European Green Deal establishes ambitious objectives to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Electricity generation remains a significant contributor to Europe’s emissions, therefore, reducing its Emission Factor (EF) is essential to meet these targets. The decarbonization of the electricity sector is critical not only for direct emission reductions but also to enable cleaner electrification of other sectors, such as transport, industry, and residential heating. Estimating the future average European EF (EU-EF) is crucial for tracking progress toward decarbonization, achieving the European Union (EU)’s Green Deal objectives, and possibly developing effective climate policies. To comprehensively analyze the evolution of Europe’s electricity EF, it is critical to account for the future energy mixes declared by individual countries and considering their share in the whole European electricity generation. This study provides a thorough investigation of the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of the EU, providing a detailed overview of future country-based EFs associated with claimed electricity generation evolution in the EU. The analysis also incorporates scenarios for increased renewable penetration by 2030 and 2050. Results indicate that renewable energy sources could account for up to around 50% of Europe’s electricity mix by 2030, and around 80% by 2050, synergically reducing reliance on conventional fossil fuels. Consequently, the EU-EF is expected to decrease by 52% by 2030 and by 86% by 2050, with respect to 1990 levels.

Keywords: Energy Mix Projections, CO2 Emission Factor, European Union Energy Policy, National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), Decarbonization Scenarios, Renewable Energy