Combat-Validated Digital Certification Model for NATO System Qualification and Defense Innovation

Abstract

The increasing complexity of modern NATO defense systems, combined with the urgency to deliver qualified capabilities under constrained timelines and budgets, necessitates innovative approaches to system qualification. Traditional certification methods, while effective, are time-consuming and resource-intensive. This paper introduces the Combat-Validated Digital Certification Model, a structured methodology that integrates battlefield-validated operational data with advanced modeling and simulation (M&S) technologies. Developed in response to NATO’s strategic objectives, the model leverages real-world data from AI-enabled and autonomous systems deployed in Ukraine, providing an unprecedented opportunity to enhance system qualification processes. The model operates through five interconnected layers: Combat Data Acquisition, Data Integration & Preprocessing, Hybrid Modelling, Certification Analysis, and Governance & Compliance. It extends Certification by Analysis (CbA) principles by embedding operational variability into digital twins, enabling continuous and traceable certification based on real-world evidence. Additionally, it incorporates uncertainty quantification based on battlefield conditions, enhancing model credibility and decision-making confidence. The model supports continuous certification across the system lifecycle, fostering agility, resilience, and interoperability within NATO frameworks. The Ukrainian experience with rapid defense technology adaptation since 2022 demonstrates the model’s practical relevance. This approach aligns with NATO’s digital transformation goals, supporting initiatives such as the NATO Innovation Fund and DIANA. Implementation recommendations include establishing a NATO working group, launching pilot projects with Ukrainian stakeholders, developing simulation governance standards, and providing specialized training. The Combat-Validated Digital Certification Model offers a scalable, adaptive solution for accelerating NATO system qualification and enhancing defense innovation resilience.

Keywords: NATO system qualification, digital certification, modeling and simulation (M&S), Certification by Analysis (CbA), combat-validated data, digital twin, defense innovation, simulation governance, operational data integration, NATO

JEL Classification: C63, D81, F52, L86, O31, O32