Toward a Standard Practice of Uncertainty Communication in Environmental Modeling

Abstract

Environmental modeling faces unavoidable uncertainty because of restricted data availability and imperfect model structures and parameters and unpredictable future scenarios. Uncertainty remains widespread in modeling applications because its inadequate representation and poor communication reduces stakeholder trust and leads to suboptimal policy decisions. This position paper promotes environmental modeling to adopt uncertainty quantification and communication as fundamental components during model development and application. This paper investigates the primary sources of uncertainty in environmental systems and discusses standard methods for uncertainty quantification which include probabilistic modeling and sensitivity analysis as well as ensemble approaches. The paper discusses communication methods to present uncertainty information effectively to non-specialist audiences through visual presentation, narrative structures and stakeholder participation. The paper identifies current obstacles that prevent uncertainty-aware practices from becoming mainstream while discussing new possibilities created by technological developments. The paper offers specific recommendations which promote transparency and standardization and support collaborative modeling practices.

Keywords: Uncertainty quantification, Environmental modeling, Stakeholder communication, Probabilistic analysis, Decision support systems