Building Back Greener: Quantifying Residential Building Decarbonization Opportunities Following Floods

Abstract

The residential building stock in the U.S. accounts for a significant share of energy consumption and emissions, and its strain on the energy grid and environment is expected to grow. Simultaneously, natural disasters are increasing in intensity and frequency, damaging the existing building stock. In this study, we bring these two challenges together by asking: How would energy demand, emissions, and peak loads shift over space and time if homeowners implemented energy-efficiency upgrades during post-disaster reconstruction? To date, no research has systematically or quantitatively assessed the potential impacts of “greening” residential rebuilding after disasters, nor how local climate and evolving risks influence net benefits. To address this, we develop a novel simulation model grounded in contemporary risk science. Our model combines physics-informed, building-level energy modeling, probabilistic flood modeling, and homeowner decision-making to evaluate outcomes for Harris County, Texas, under multiple reconstruction scenarios. We find that energy-efficient post-disaster rebuilding can meaningfully reduce energy use, emissions, and peak loads. Under our most optimistic scenario, upgrades yield a 2.9% reduction in energy consumption, a 3.6% decrease in carbon-equivalent emissions, and a 2.2% decline in peak electricity demand by 2080—equivalent to one-third of Washington, D.C.’s residential energy use and three times its electricity-related carbon emissions. While post-disaster reconstruction offers a powerful window to transform energy outcomes, federal and state policies that support such improvements remain limited. Strategic interventions during this period could deliver significant long-term benefits.

Keywords: Floods, building stock, Decarbonization, ResStock, energy efficiency