Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area

28 Pages Posted: 1 Apr 2004

See all articles by Emanuel Moench

Emanuel Moench

Deutsche Bundesbank; Goethe University Frankfurt - Department of Money and Macroeconomics

Harald Uhlig

University of Chicago - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 22, 2004

Abstract

This paper is an exercise in dating the Euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. We construct several monthly European real GDP series, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. Using this method we identify four business cycles. Studying further indicators of business activity, we conclude that the Euro area has experienced three business cycles since 1970. We propose a simple amplitude/phase-length criterion for the Bry-Boschan procedure ruling out expansionary phases that are short and flat. Applying the extended procedure to US and European data, we are able to replicate approximately the dating decisions of the NBER and the CEPR.

Keywords: Business cycle, European business cycle, Euro area, Bry-Boschan, NBER methodology

JEL Classification: B41, C22, C82, E32, E58

Suggested Citation

Moench, Emanuel and Uhlig, Harald, Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area (March 22, 2004). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=523942 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.523942

Emanuel Moench (Contact Author)

Deutsche Bundesbank ( email )

Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14
Frankfurt/Main, 60431
Germany
+49 69 95662312 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.bundesbank.de/en/emanuel-moench

Goethe University Frankfurt - Department of Money and Macroeconomics ( email )

Germany

Harald Uhlig

University of Chicago - Department of Economics ( email )

1101 East 58th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
243
Abstract Views
1,677
rank
126,891
PlumX Metrics