Identification and Estimation of Economic Models of Outmigration Using Panel Attrition

34 Pages Posted: 14 Apr 2004

See all articles by Charles Bellemare

Charles Bellemare

Université Laval - Département d'Économique; Centre Interuniversitaire sur le Risque, les Politiques Economiques et l'Emploi (CIRPÉE); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Date Written: March 2004

Abstract

Because their departures are difficultly observed, little is known about the performance of immigrants who leave a region and move to another. This paper shows conditions under which the (conditional) outmigration probability, work probability and the expected earnings of outmigrants are nonparametrically identified using data on immigrant sample attrition. We present an econometric model which extracts the information on outmigration behavior from sample attrition and allows to incorporate unobserved heterogeneity in the choice process in a very natural way, a feature not previously possible. The method presented in the paper is general enough to estimate models of internal and external migration. We apply our framework to estimate a panel data model where immigrants can choose whether to stay or leave a country. The model is estimated using the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Outmigrants are found to have significantly lower labor market earnings and work propensities than permanent migrants.

Keywords: outmigration, identification, panel data models

JEL Classification: J24, J61

Suggested Citation

Bellemare, Charles, Identification and Estimation of Economic Models of Outmigration Using Panel Attrition (March 2004). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=524622

Charles Bellemare (Contact Author)

Université Laval - Département d'Économique ( email )

2325 Rue de l'Université
Ste-Foy, Quebec G1K 7P4 G1K 7P4
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Centre Interuniversitaire sur le Risque, les Politiques Economiques et l'Emploi (CIRPÉE)

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Ste-Foy, Quebec G1K 7P4
Canada

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

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Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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