Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Causal Inference and Impact Mechanism of Social-Ecological System Disequilibrium in Major Urban Agglomerations in China

Abstract

Aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), this study explores the critical dynamic disequilibrium between social systems and ecosystems within the ambit of sustainable urban development. Through the innovative formulation of a new pixel-based index, we undertake a comprehensive analysis of three distinct urban agglomerations to furnish a quantitative and comparative evaluation of ecological and social disequilibrium over the preceding two decades, alongside an examination of their mechanisms of impact. Our study: 1) Illustrates the temporal and spatial dynamics of these disequilibria, identifying that, over the past 20 years, ecological disequilibrium has diminished, while social disequilibrium has undergone a trajectory of initial reduction followed by deterioration; 2) Summarizes the dual paradigms of socio-ecological disequilibrium across the three urban agglomerations, unveiling that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) regions exhibit more mature and stable social structures compared to the Greater Bay Area (GBA); 3) Expounds on the potential causal linkage between social disequilibrium and ecological disequilibrium, and delineates how these relationships evolve under varying developmental strategies of urban agglomerations; 4) Highlights the significant impact of artificial construction surfaces on the interplay between social and ecological imbalances.

Keywords: Geospatial methods, resource management, Sustainable development, spatial analysis, ecological and social disequilibrium, GCCM