Investigating the Impact of Time, Delay, and Navigation on En-Route Diversion Beahviors in China

Abstract

A critical aspect of understanding driver behavior is examining how time, delays, and navigation systems influence route diversion decisions. While prior research has explored the individual impacts of these factors, integrated analyses of their combined effects across varying trip purposes and disruption scenarios remain limited. This study leverages data from online surveys conducted in China, categorizing variables into time and delay factors, navigation influences, and attitude factors. A multinomial logit (MNL) model is employed to analyze how these variables shape route diversion behaviors. The results reveal several key insights. Drivers exhibit more uniform diversion behavior during emergency evacuations compared to commutes. In emergencies, congestion tolerance and a preference for multiple routes significantly influence diversion decisions, with a stronger reliance on traditional navigation methods. Conversely, daily commutes are driven by perceived time savings, route familiarity, and trust in in-vehicle navigation technologies. These findings underscore the importance of developing adaptive traffic management strategies and navigation technologies tailored to specific scenarios and user groups. They also provide a foundation for understanding individual route choice behaviors and advancing traffic flow assignment models, offering valuable insights to enhance traffic resilience and efficiency.

Keywords: Route diversion, Multinomial logit model (MNL), Emergency evacuation, Daily commute, Time and delay, Navigation