A Methodology to Evaluate the Dynamic Resilience of Lng Shipping Network by Load Redistribution Strategy: A Case of China

Abstract

The examination of the dynamic resilience of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipping network is essential to ensure a sustainable and stable energy supply under significant uncertain disturbances. For this purpose, the AIS data from September 4, 2023, to September 21, 2024, is firstly collected to establish China's LNG import shipping network, which contains ports and critical maritime chokepoints. In case of significant uncertain disturbances, the load redistribution strategy is introduced to quantitatively describe the dynamic recovery process of network functionality from the perspective of network resilience. As a result, three network parameters of congestion rate, failure rate, and voyage loss obtained from the load redistribution algorithm are used to calculate the network resilience. Then, the failure of critical maritime infrastructure (such as unavailability of the Strait of Malacca) is taken as an example of a significant disturbance, the influence of which is analyzed by means of the proposed model. In addition, to explore the influence of the load tolerance and failure level of nodes on network resilience, the sensitivity analysis is implemented. The results of this study offer practical insights that can help stakeholders and decision-makers understand the level of network resilience, thereby aiding them in emergency decision-making.

Keywords: LNG shipping network, Network functionality recovery, Network dynamic resilience calculation, Sensitivity analysis