Transport Infrastructure Development Helped Offset Carbon Emissions within China's Meat Supply Chain

Abstract

Transportation is a critical link in telecoupled food supply chains, yet its impact on emissions within the meat supply chain remains insufficiently understood. This study develops a model-based framework to estimate the transport-related carbon emissions in China’s meat supply chain at the prefecture level, considering key drivers of dietary and population growth. Results indicate that emissions rose by over 80%, from 6.34 million tons (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (CO2e) in 1990 to 11.76 Mt CO2e in 2015. Notably, transport infrastructure development mitigated 3.11 Mt (26.72%) CO2e, double of the increment related to population growth. In contrast, dietary shifts and production displacement increased emission of 3.83 Mt and 3.17 Mt, respectively. These findings underscore the role of transportation in mitigating life-cycle emissions in food supply chains, offering insights for sustainable food system transitions in China and beyond.

Keywords: Transport infrastructure, Dietary transition, Cropland displacement, Meat supply chain, Spatial Interaction Model, carbon emission