Future Air Quality and Human Health Benefits of Net-Zero Co2 Emissions Pathway in China

Abstract

While growing attention has been paid to the co-benefits of climate policies, existing research often lacks granularity in evaluating diverse low-carbon transition strategies and their effects on air pollution and public health, particularly within the context of China’s rapidly aging demographic. Here, we assess the PM2.5 air quality and health co-benefits of a net-zero CO2 emissions (NZE) pathway aligned with the 1.5 oC global climate target by integrating the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model with the latest exposure-response relationships. Our results show that, compared to China’s initial nationally determined contribution scenario – peaking CO2 emissions around 2030, the NZE pathway could prevent approximately 50,786 and 260,479 PM2.5 attributable deaths by 2035 and 2050, respectively, primarily through emission reductions in power generation and industry sectors. However, even under this ambitious climate scenario, projected reductions in PM2.5-related mortality plateau after 2035, suggesting that climate policy alone will not be enough to counterbalance the health risks posed by population aging and residual pollution. Moreover, regional disparities in health co-benefits of CO2 mitigation have been increasing over time, underscoring the need for more spatially tailored interventions. Our findings highlight that an integrated approach – combining deep decarbonization with targeted pollution controls, is essential for equitable and effective protection of public health in the low-carbon transition.

Keywords: co-benefit, fine particulate matter, decarbonization, premature death, GAINS