The Spatial Spillover Effects of Corruption on Environmental Dynamics in China: Insights from Nighttime Light Index

Abstract

While human economic activities are widely acknowledged as drivers of environmental degradation, the role of institutional quality in shaping this relationship remains understudied. This paper investigates how corruption, as a manifestation of institutional failure, spatially influences environmental quality through the lens of nighttime light dynamics—a proxy for anthropogenic pressure and carbon-intensive development. Employing an spatial econometric model on panel data from Chinese provinces (2000–2019), we uncover four key findings: (1) Corruption exacerbates carbon lock-in effects by distorting regional nighttime light patterns, which correlate with inefficient energy use and rising emissions. (2) The environmental impacts of corruption exhibit spatial spillovers, mediated by a self-reinforcing "corruption-growth-environment nexus" that propagates institutional decay, stagnated green transitions, and ecological degradation across neighboring regions. (3) Nonlinear thresholds exist in corruption-environment linkages, where anti-corruption policies (e.g., China’s post-2012 campaigns) can disrupt this vicious cycle by aligning economic restructuring with sustainable transition goals embedded in national strategies like the Five-Year Plans. (4) Institutional reforms not only decouple economic growth from emissions but also catalyze place-based green governance, offering a pathway to achieve carbon neutrality through polycentric accountability systems. By integrating political economy and ecological economics frameworks, this study advances the debate on institutional drivers of environmental change and provides actionable insights for designing anti-corruption-climate policy synergies in developing economies.

Keywords: Anti-corruption policy, Environmental governance, Carbon Lock-in, Nighttime light index, Spatial spillover effects, sustainable transition