How Can Energy-System Models Inform Technology Development? Insights for Emerging Energy-Storage Technologies

Abstract

Energy-system models (ESMs) are often used to support policymakers, system operators or investors, but fall short of offering guidance to technology developers. This paper aims to bridge the gap between energy-systems modelling and technology development. Focussing specifically on electricity-storage technologies, we highlight how ESM outcomes can inform the development of emerging technologies. We use a model that includes four promising energy-storage technologies in a capacity-expansion and dispatch optimisation of the European electricity system with a constraint that allows zero carbon emissions before the year 2050. Our model outcomes are geared towards informing technology developers, particularly regarding optimal energy-to-power ratios, full-cycle equivalents, dispatch curves, and promising markets. We link these design and dispatch decisions with each other and with energy-storage characteristics (e.g., capital expenditures and efficiencies) and with renewable-energy potentials of different countries. The insights that are generated can support developers, e.g., by providing guidance on operational requirements or trade-offs in design decisions. We conclude that there are no significant barriers to informing technology development with ESMs. However, future work should improve the representation of technological details and develop inverse modelling approaches for technologies in very early development stages with still highly uncertain parameters.

Keywords: Energy storage, Electricity-system decarbonisation, Technology readiness level, Energy-system model, Technology development