Housing and the Business Cycle
Finance and Economics Discussion Paper No. 2004-11
43 Pages Posted: 12 Apr 2004
Date Written: November 1, 2003
In the United States, the percentage standard deviation of residential investment is more than twice that of non-residential investment. In addition, GDP, consumption, and both types of investment co-move positively. We reproduce these facts in a calibrated multi-sector growth model where construction, manufacturing and services are combined, in different proportions, to produce consumption, business investment and residential structures. New housing requires land in addition to new structures. The model can also account for important features of industry-level data. In particular, hours and output in all industries are positively correlated, and are most volatile in construction.
Keywords: Residential investment, co-movement, home production, multisector models
JEL Classification: E0, E2, R21, R31
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation