The Credibility of the European Monetary System: A Review

Estudios de Economia Espanola Working Paper No. 179

26 Pages Posted: 14 Apr 2004

See all articles by Francisco Ledesma Rodríguez

Francisco Ledesma Rodríguez

University of La Laguna - Department of Applied Economics

Manuel Navarro Ibáñez

University of La Laguna - Department of Applied Economics

Jorge Pérez Rodríguez

University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria - Faculty of Economic Science

Simon Sosvilla-Rivero

UCM Institute for Economic Analysis

Date Written: March 2004

Abstract

The paper presents an overview of several studies about the credibility of the European Monetary System (EMS). These studies compare different credibility indicators in terms of their ability to detect exchange rate crises in a target zone. Marginal credibility seems to be the best measure for capturing the main events. The credibility indices are also applied to the short experience of the current ERM-II. The history of the EMS suggests that, in an environment of financial deregulation and high capital flows, such an exchange rate system can only operate as a temporary regime that is moving towards a full monetary union, since it may be too fragile as a permanent monetary regime.

Keywords: Credibility, Exchange Rates, Target Zones, European Monetary System

JEL Classification: C52, F31

Suggested Citation

Ledesma Rodríguez, Francisco J. and Navarro Ibáñez, Manuel and Pérez Rodríguez, Jorge and Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, The Credibility of the European Monetary System: A Review (March 2004). Estudios de Economia Espanola Working Paper No. 179. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=529643 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.529643

Francisco J. Ledesma Rodríguez

University of La Laguna - Department of Applied Economics ( email )

Facultad de Ciencias Economicas
Campus de Guajara
38071 La Laguna
Spain
+34 922 31 71 19 (Phone)
+34 922 31 78 53 (Fax)

Manuel Navarro Ibáñez

University of La Laguna - Department of Applied Economics ( email )

Facultad de Ciencias Economicas
Campus de Guajara
La Laguna, Santa Cruz de Tenerife 38071
Spain
+34 922 31 71 11 (Phone)

Jorge Pérez Rodríguez

University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria - Faculty of Economic Science ( email )

Dpto. de Metodos Cuantitativo Campus de Tafira, Tafira Baja
E-35017 Las Palmas
Spain
+34 928 458222 (Phone)
+34 928-458225 / 1829 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://fcee.ulpgc.es/~jorge/

Simon Sosvilla-Rivero (Contact Author)

UCM Institute for Economic Analysis ( email )

Carretera de Humera s/n
Madrid, Madrid 28223
Spain
+34913932626 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ucm.es/info/ecocuan/ssr/

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