The Impact of Political Violence on Tourism - Dynamic Econometric Estimation in a Cross-National Panel

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48, No. 2, pp. 259-281, April 2004

41 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2004 Last revised: 29 Jun 2010

See all articles by Eric Neumayer

Eric Neumayer

London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)

Date Written: June 29, 2010

Abstract

The hypothesis that political violence deters tourism is mainly based on case study evidence and a few quantitative studies confined to a small sample of countries. This is the first comprehensive, general quantitative test of the impact of various forms of political violence on tourist arrivals. We employ two estimation techniques: a fixed-effects panel estimator with contemporaneous effects only and a dynamic generalized method of moments estimator, which allows for lagged effects of political violence on tourism. In both model specifications, we find strong evidence that human rights violations, conflict and other politically motivated violent events negatively impact upon tourist arrivals. In a dynamic model, autocratic regimes, even if they do not resort to violence, have lower numbers of tourist arrivals than more democratic regimes. We also find evidence for intra-regional negative spill-over and cross-regional substitution effects.

Suggested Citation

Neumayer, Eric, The Impact of Political Violence on Tourism - Dynamic Econometric Estimation in a Cross-National Panel (June 29, 2010). Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48, No. 2, pp. 259-281, April 2004. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=533043

Eric Neumayer (Contact Author)

London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://personal.lse.ac.uk/neumayer

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