The Cross-Section of Expected Trading Activity

47 Pages Posted: 2 Jul 2004

See all articles by Tarun Chordia

Tarun Chordia

Emory University - Department of Finance

Sahn-Wook Huh

State University of New York (SUNY) - Department of Finance

Avanidhar Subrahmanyam

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Finance Area; Institute of Global Finance, UNSW Business School; Financial Research Network (FIRN)

Abstract

This paper studies cross-sectional variations in stock trading activity for a comprehensive sample of NYSE/AMEX and Nasdaq stocks over a period of thirty-six years. Our theoretical framework indicates that trading activity depends on the extent of liquidity trading, the mass of informed agents, and dispersion of opinion about the stock's fundamental value. We further postulate that liquidity or noise trading depends both on a stock's visibility and on portfolio rebalancing needs triggered by past stock price performance. We use size, firm age, price, and the book-to-market ratio as proxies for a firm's visibility. The mass of informed agents is proxied by the number of analysts following the stock, while analyst forecast dispersion, systematic risk, and firm leverage proxy for divergence of opinion. Past return is by far the most significant predictor of stock turnover. Forecast dispersion and systematic risk also play important roles in predicting the cross-section of expected trading activity. Stocks that have performed well in a given year experience aggressive buying pressure in the subsequent year, which points to the presence of momentum investing. Overall, the results support theories of trading based on differences of opinion and stock visibility.

Keywords: Volume, Market Efficiency, Liquidity

JEL Classification: G11, G14

Suggested Citation

Chordia, Tarun and Huh, Sahn-Wook and Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, The Cross-Section of Expected Trading Activity. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=539122 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.539122

Tarun Chordia

Emory University - Department of Finance ( email )

Atlanta, GA 30322-2710
United States
404-727-1620 (Phone)
404-727-5238 (Fax)

Sahn-Wook Huh

State University of New York (SUNY) - Department of Finance ( email )

347 Jacobs Management Center
Buffalo, 14260-4000
United States
716-645-5435 (Phone)
716-645-3823 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: https://sites.google.com/site/sahnwookhuh/home

Avanidhar Subrahmanyam (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Finance Area ( email )

Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481
United States
310-825-5355 (Phone)
310-206-5455 (Fax)

Institute of Global Finance, UNSW Business School

Sydney, NSW 2052
Australia

Financial Research Network (FIRN)

C/- University of Queensland Business School
St Lucia, 4071 Brisbane
Queensland
Australia

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