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Turkish Delight - Does Turkey's Accession to the EU Bring Economic Benefits?

33 Pages Posted: 12 May 2004  

Ruud A. De Mooij

International Monetary Fund (IMF); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation

Arjan Lejour

CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis; Tilburg School of Economics and Management

Date Written: May 2004

Abstract

We explore the economic implications of the possible Turkish accession to the European Union. We focus on three main changes associated with Turkish membership: (i) accession to the internal European Market; (ii) institutional reforms in Turkey triggered by EU membership; and (iii) migration in response to the free movement of workers. Overall, the macroeconomic implications for EU countries are small but positive. European exports increase by around 20 percent. Turkey experiences larger economic gains than the EU: consumption per capita is estimated to rise by about 4 percent as a result of accession to the internal market and free movement of labour. If Turkey would succeed in reforming its domestic institutions in response to EU-membership, consumption per capita in Turkey could raise by an additional 9 percent. These benefits would spill over to the EU.

Keywords: Turkey, regional economic integration, general equilibrium model, gravity equations, institutional reform, migration

JEL Classification: F13, F15

Suggested Citation

De Mooij, Ruud A. and Lejour, Arjan, Turkish Delight - Does Turkey's Accession to the EU Bring Economic Benefits? (May 2004). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1183. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=542402

Ruud A. De Mooij (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://people.few.eur.nl/demooij/

Arjan M. Lejour

CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis ( email )

Bezuidenhoutseweg 30
po box 80510
The Hague, 2594AV
Netherlands
+31 652485843 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.cpb.nl/en/medewerkers/arjan-lejour

Tilburg School of Economics and Management ( email )

PO Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE Ti
Netherlands

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