Do Tender Offers Create Value? New Methods and Evidence
Dice Center Working Paper No. 2004-4
64 Pages Posted: 18 May 2004
Date Written: March 16, 2004
We develop the Probability Scaling Method, which rescales short-window announcement period returns; and the Intervention Method, which uses returns associated with intervening events, to estimate value improvements from tender offers. These methods address biases in conventional techniques, which measure only a fraction of the total tender offer gain; and which include revelation about bidder stand-alone value. Perceived value improvements are much larger than traditional methods indicate, so that we cannot reject the hypothesis that bidders on average pay fair prices for targets. Furthermore, our new methods affect inferences about economic forces in the takeover market. We identify several effects (higher combined bidder-target stock returns for hostile offers, lower for equity offers, and lower for diversifying offers) that reflect differences in revelation about stand-alone value, not gains from combination.
Keywords: Tender offers, value improvements, truncation dilemma, revelation bias, agency
JEL Classification: G12, G34
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation