Implications of EU Accession for International Migration: An Assessment of Potential Migration Pressure

27 Pages Posted: 20 May 2004

See all articles by Anzelika Zaiceva

Anzelika Zaiceva

University of Modena and Reggio Emilia; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Date Written: May 2004

Abstract

This paper estimates the potential migration from eight EU accession countries as well as Bulgaria and Romania as a result of the eastern enlargement. The experience of migration from Greece, Portugal and Spain is used to estimate the parameters of a migration function, exploiting panel estimation techniques. The results from the models are then used for so-called double out of sample extrapolations - for ten countries that are not within the estimated sample and for the time period in the future. It was found that potential migration flows from central and eastern Europe will be modest. Moreover, legal introduction of free movement of workers seems not to increase migration significantly, contrary to what one might expect.

Keywords: international migration, migration projections, EU enlargement, panel estimation

JEL Classification: F22, J11, J61

Suggested Citation

Zaiceva, Anzelika, Implications of EU Accession for International Migration: An Assessment of Potential Migration Pressure (May 2004). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=546044

Anzelika Zaiceva (Contact Author)

University of Modena and Reggio Emilia ( email )

Viale A. Allegri 9
Modena, Modena 42121
Italy

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

Schaumburg-Lippe-Str. 7 / 9
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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