OFOR Working Paper Number 94-04
Posted: 29 Oct 2000
The informational value of USDA corn and soybean production forecasts is investigated for the period 1971-1992. Three tests of informational content are considered: i) a relative forecast accuracy test, ii) a price reaction test, and iii) a willingness-to-pay test. Overall, the results suggest USDA corn and soybean forecasts provide valuable information to commodity markets. This value, however, does appear to have declined, especially since the mid-1980s. This is consistent with large declines in the cost of information due to technological improvements in computers, communications equipment, remote-sensing satellites, etc.
JEL Classification: 14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Garcia, Philip and Irwin, Scott H. and Leuthold, Raymond M. and Yang, Li, New Evidence on the Value of Public Information in Commodity Markets. OFOR Working Paper Number 94-04. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5500