Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992

Univ. California Santa Cruz Center for International Economics Working Paper No. 04-11

24 Pages Posted: 30 Jun 2004  

Terrie Carolan

Finaplex, Inc.

Nirvikar Singh

University of California, Santa Cruz - Department of Economics

Date Written: May 2004

Abstract

We examine the composition of bilateral trade between the United States and each of eight Asian Pacific economies from 1962 to 1992. Two complementary time series analyses of individual commodities at the SITC four-digit level indicate that significant change occurred in trade composition during this period. For the eight bilateral trade relationships, commodities representing from fifty to seventy percent of 1992 dollar trade volume have shown statistically significant change in the magnitude and, in some cases, in the direction of net trade balance, over the thirty-year period. Results support the conclusion that changes in trade patterns in both low-tech industries, such as textiles and clothing, and more high-tech industries, such as electronic parts and electronic goods were important in these so-called Asian tigers as their economies advanced.

Keywords: International trade flows, time series, ADF, KPSS, trends, economic development

JEL Classification: F02, F14, F17, O14

Suggested Citation

Carolan, Terrie and Singh, Nirvikar, Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992 (May 2004). Univ. California Santa Cruz Center for International Economics Working Paper No. 04-11. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=551763 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.551763

Terrie Carolan

Finaplex, Inc. ( email )

333 Bush Street, Floor 11
San Francisco, CA 94104
United States

Nirvikar Singh (Contact Author)

University of California, Santa Cruz - Department of Economics ( email )

Social Sciences I
Santa Cruz, CA 95064
United States
831-459-4093 (Phone)
831-459-5900 (Fax)

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