A Note On Demand and Supply Factors In Manufacturing Output Asymmetries

21 Pages Posted: 3 Jun 2004 Last revised: 15 Jun 2008

See all articles by Oleg Korenok

Oleg Korenok

Virginia Commonwealth University - School of Business

Bruce Mizrach

Rutgers University, Department of Economics

Stanislav Radchenko

University of North Carolina at Charlotte

Date Written: 10/30/2007

Abstract

In a Markov switching framework, we show that the duration of recessions is significantly shorter than the duration of expansions in 11 manufacturing sectors, and aggregate durables and manufacturing output. We find two leading indicators, consumer expectations and the term spread, act as important demand driven forces behind asymmetry.

Keywords: asymmetry, industry, Markov switching, leading indicators

JEL Classification: E23, E24, E32

Suggested Citation

Korenok, Oleg and Mizrach, Bruce and Radchenko, Stanislav, A Note On Demand and Supply Factors In Manufacturing Output Asymmetries (10/30/2007). Macroeconomic Dynamics, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=553907

Oleg Korenok

Virginia Commonwealth University - School of Business ( email )

1015 Floyd Avenue
Richmond, VA 23284-4000
United States

Bruce Mizrach (Contact Author)

Rutgers University, Department of Economics ( email )

75 Hamilton Street
New Brunswick, NJ 08901
United States
(848) 932-8636 (Phone)
(732) 932-7416 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://snde.rutgers.edu/

Stanislav Radchenko

University of North Carolina at Charlotte ( email )

9201 University City Boulevard
Charlotte, NC 28223-0001
United States

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