A Note On Demand and Supply Factors In Manufacturing Output Asymmetries
21 Pages Posted: 3 Jun 2004 Last revised: 15 Jun 2008
Date Written: 10/30/2007
In a Markov switching framework, we show that the duration of recessions is significantly shorter than the duration of expansions in 11 manufacturing sectors, and aggregate durables and manufacturing output. We find two leading indicators, consumer expectations and the term spread, act as important demand driven forces behind asymmetry.
Keywords: asymmetry, industry, Markov switching, leading indicators
JEL Classification: E23, E24, E32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation