Executive Compensation and Analyst Guidance: The Link Between CEO Compensation and Expectations Management
60 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2005
Date Written: November 2003
Abstract
During the last decade, a surprisingly high percentage of U.S. companies has fulfilled or beaten analysts' earnings per share forecasts. One of the most frequently cited reasons for this growing tendency is a change in the nature of U.S. executive compensation structure. As stock options have become an increasingly important part of executive compensation, the preservation or enhancement of short term stock value around the earnings announcement has become a priority for managers. Besides earnings management, a widespread way to meet analyst expectations is to inject pessimism into their forecasts by providing analysts with negative clues, or so-called downward guidance. This paper is the first to investigate the relationship between the practice of analyst guidance and executive compensation packages. We document a strong link between expectations management and the relevant options component of CEO compensation, bonus plans, and the percentage of the company's shares owned by the CEO who manages it. In a second set of tests, we show that firms which meet or beat analyst forecasts at the earnings announcement generate positive abnormal returns, which are significantly lower for firms suspected of managing expectations.
Keywords: Analyst guidance, Earnings surprise, Executive compensation, Stock options
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
Are CEOS Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?
By Brian J. Hall and Jeffrey B. Liebman
-
Are CEOS Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?
By Brian J. Hall and Jeffrey B. Liebman
-
The Other Side of the Tradeoff: The Impact of Risk on Executive Compensation
-
Good Timing: CEO Stock Option Awards and Company News Announcements
-
Good Timing: CEO Stock Option Awards and Company News Announcements
-
The Use of Equity Grants to Manage Optimal Equity Incentive Levels
By John E. Core and Wayne R. Guay
-
The Other Side of the Tradeoff: the Impact of Risk on Executive Compensation
-
Stock Options for Undiversified Executives
By Brian J. Hall and Kevin J. Murphy